Data Mining for Lifetime Value Estimation

Customer lifetime value (LTV, see e.g. Bauer et al. 2005 and Rosset et al. 2003), which measures the profit generating potential, or value, of a customer, is increasingly being considered a touchstone for administering the CRM (Customer relationship management) process. This in order to provide attractive benefits and retain high-value customers, while maximizing profits from a business standpoint. Robust and accurate techniques for modelling LTV are essential in order to facilitate CRM via LTV. A customer LTV model needs to be explained and understood to a large degree before it can be adopted to facilitate CRM. LTV is usually considered to be composed of two independent components: tenure and value. Though modelling the value (or equivalently, profit) component of LTV, (which takes into account revenue, fixed and variable costs), is a challenge in itself, our experience has revealed that finance departments, to a large degree, well manage this aspect. Therefore, in this paper, our focus will mainly be on modelling tenure rather than value.